Modeling

Forecasts

*** Change in Chemical Forecasts ***

For many years we have produced Chemical Forecasts using MOZART-4, but these have now stopped. 

Chemical forecasts are now being provided with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) configuration of a preliminary version of CESM2.  10-day forecasts are being run, driven by NASA/GMAO GEOS-5 meteorology.  Fire emissions are updated daily with near-real-time FINNv1 emissions (https://www.acom.ucar.edu/acresp/forecast/fire-emissions.shtml) and used for the following 10-day forecast.

Plots are displayed at: https://www.acom.ucar.edu/waccm/forecast/

Model output (daily files of global, 6-hourly output) of long-lived species suitable for use as boundary conditions for regional models is posted at: https://www.acom.ucar.edu/waccm/DATA

The chemical mechanism in WACCM includes comprehensive tropospheric, stratospheric and mesospheric chemistry.  The tropospheric chemistry mechanism has been significantly updated from MOZART-4 and is called MOZART-T1.  A preliminary version of this mechanism is described in Knote et al. (2014) and a complete description of the chemistry in CESM2 is being prepared.  The most important change for users of the model output for regional model boundary conditions is the new treatment of aromatics: the previous lumped aromatic (confusingly called 'TOLUENE') has been replaced with the specific species BENZENE, TOLUENE and XYLENES.  The lumped monoterpene is now called MTERP, and a sesquiterpene, BCARY, has been added. The aerosol scheme in WACCM is the MAM4 modal aerosol scheme, which is described in Liu et al. (GMD, 2015).  Please contact Louisa Emmons if you have further questions. 

 

Plots of Satellite CO and Fire Emissions

On the ACRESP Forecast Plots website:

  • Fire emissions from FINN (Fire Inventory from NCAR) using MODIS Rapid Response fire counts
  • Specialized chemical forecasts for field campaigns (e.g., KORUS-AQ)
  • Near-real-time MOPITT CO retrievals

 

MOZART-4 Chemical Forecasts

MOZART-4 chemical forecasts are no longer being created.  You can see images of the historical forecasts at http://www.acom.ucar.edu/acresp/forecast/.

MOZART-4 simulations (up to Jan 26, 2018) are available for downloading, with options for subsetting on the WRF-Chem MOZART download webpage.  

MOZART forecasts have been used as boundary conditions for regional forecasts:

UCAR/NCAR Share

                  

                  

ACOM | Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling