Multi-model analysis of the radiative impacts of the 2022 Hunga eruption indicates a significant cooling contribution from the volcanic plume
Quaglia, I., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Zhu, Y., Stenchikov, G., et al. (2025). Multi-model analysis of the radiative impacts of the 2022 Hunga eruption indicates a significant cooling contribution from the volcanic plume.
| Title | Multi-model analysis of the radiative impacts of the 2022 Hunga eruption indicates a significant cooling contribution from the volcanic plume |
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| Genre | Conference Material |
| Author(s) | Ilaria Quaglia, Daniele Visioni, E. M. Bednarz, Y. Zhu, G. Stenchikov, V. Aquila, C. Liu, G. W. Mann, Y. Peng, T. Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Xinyue Wang, S. Watanabe, P. Yu, Jun Zhang, Z. Zhuo, W. Yu |
| Abstract | On January 15, 2022, the Hunga volcano in the South Pacific erupted, releasing unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. The injection of around 150 Tg of water vapor into the mid and upper stratosphere, a quantity that represents roughly 10% of all stratospheric water vapor, was originally projected to lead to a significant positive radiative forcing, whereas the smaller co-injection of sulfate, initially estimated at around 0.5 Tg of SO2, was overlooked as a contributor. In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) Project, looking at the models' response in terms of atmospheric radiative forcing across a set of experiments aimed at separating the impacts of the various injected materials, as well as their combined effect. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022-2023 is estimated at -0.19 ± 0.04 W/m2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and -0.16 ± 0.03 W/m2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of -0.14 ± 0.13 W/m2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to -0.09 ± 0.10 W/m2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50%, considering that recent SO2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing, contrary to earlier speculation about the eruption. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first six months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection alongside SO2. |
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| Publication Date | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d72n56tf |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| ACOM Affiliations | MODELING, ACOMVISITORS |