Systematic spatio-temporal analysis of long term trends and surface warming thresholds over Oman
Dayanandan, B., Abbas, A., Parottil, A. J., Velu, V., Jana, S., et al. (2026). Systematic spatio-temporal analysis of long term trends and surface warming thresholds over Oman. Earth Systems and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00874-x
| Title | Systematic spatio-temporal analysis of long term trends and surface warming thresholds over Oman |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | B. Dayanandan, A. Abbas, Ajay J. Parottil, V. Velu, S. Jana, A. A. Harrasi, M. S. A. Kalbani, R. A. Nadhairi, H. AlBadi |
| Abstract | This study presents a comprehensive assessment of long-term surface air temperature trends over Oman using ground measurements and ERA5 from 1981 to 2020. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator was applied to identify trends; results reveal significant nationwide non-uniform warming, with average (Tavg), maximum (Tmax), and minimum (Tmin) temperatures rising by 0.23 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, 0.25 ± 0.16 °C decade⁻¹, and 0.23 ± 0.20 °C decade⁻¹, respectively. Seasonal trends show spring (MAM) warming to be the most rapid, followed closely by autumn (SON), while summer (JJA) exhibits consistent increases across all metrics. Winter (DJF) displays the slowest warming. Decadal intensification is evident post 2000, with 2011–2020 ranking as the warmest decade on record. The frequency and extent of extreme temperature days have increased sharply, driven by a rapid warming trend since the 2000s. Central Oman in the recent decade records over 110 days annually with Tavg >36 °C, while days with Tmax >45 °C and nights with Tmin >30 °C (tropical nights) have more than tripled. Regionally, a strong and consistent warming pattern is evident across northern and central Oman, particularly reflected in Tmax and Tmin trends. Northern Oman experiences the most pronounced and persistent rise in temperature. Central Oman shows notable warming with more variability in some areas. In contrast, southern Oman exhibits relatively weaker trends, with the least warming observed overall. Overall, Oman is warming 1.2–2.3 times faster than the global average but slightly slower than the broader Arabian Peninsula, making it an intermediate yet vulnerable climate hotspot. |
| Publication Title | Earth Systems and Environment |
| Publication Date | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00874-x |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7xd1683 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| ACOM Affiliations | MODELING |