Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup
Quagraine, K. A., Quagraine, K. T., Lennard, C.. (2026). Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup. Environmental Research Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9139
| Title | Schedule-dependent heat exposure at united states host cities of the 2026 FIFA world cup |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | Kwesi A. Quagraine, Kwesi T. Quagraine, C. Lennard |
| Abstract | Large outdoor sporting events increasingly coincide with dangerous heat, yet hazard assessments often rely on seasonal averages that obscure the conditions athletes and spectators actually experience. Here we quantify heat exposure during the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup at United States host cities by computing the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), a composite index of physiological heat stress, at match-day exposure windows rather than as a monthly mean. Hourly near-surface fields from ERA5, the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis on a 0.25 degree grid, over 11 June to 19 July for the period 2002–2023, were used to derive WBGT at five host cities (Houston, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, and Kansas City) with a physically based formulation that resolves natural wet-bulb and globe temperatures from air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Exposure was evaluated over windows spanning two hours before to three hours after kickoff, and exceedance of the 28, 30, and 32 degrees Celsius thresholds was quantified with block-bootstrap confidence intervals. We find pronounced spatial variability driven primarily by atmospheric moisture: humid subtropical cities reach heat-stress thresholds at markedly lower air temperatures than the interior continental comparator. Tournament risk arises mainly from frequent exposure to moderately elevated WBGT rather than from rare extremes, and exceedance is strongly and nonlinearly sensitive to kickoff timing: Houston and Dallas, with early-afternoon kickoffs, exceed 28 degrees Celsius during 39%–43% of match-window hours, whereas Miami, despite comparable humidity, stays near 7% because its matches are scheduled later in the day. Because these estimates are ambient lower bounds derived from a warming historical climate, they likely understate 2026 conditions inside stadiums. Kickoff scheduling therefore emerges as a practical, low-regret lever for reducing heat exposure without altering venues or the tournament calendar. |
| Publication Title | Environmental Research Communications |
| Publication Date | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9139 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d75h7mtq |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |