Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions
Verjans, V., Franzke, C., Lee, S., Kim, I., Tilmes, S., et al. (2025). Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions. Science Advances, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt5088
| Title | Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | V. Verjans, C. Franzke, S. Lee, I. Kim, Simone Tilmes, David M. Lawrence, Francis M. Vitt, F. Li |
| Abstract | Climate change affects lightning frequency and wildfire intensity globally. To date, model limitations have prevented quantifying climate-lightning-wildfire interactions comprehensively. We exploit advances in Earth System modeling to examine these three-way interactions and their sensitivities to idealized CO 2 forcing in 140-year simulations. Lightning sensitivity to global temperature change (+1.6 ± 0.1% per kelvin) is mitigated by compensating atmospheric effects. Global burned area sensitivity to temperature (+13.8 ± 0.3% per kelvin) is largely driven by intensified fire weather and increased biomass but marginally by lightning changes. We find a universal law characterizing regional-scale modeled fire activity and its CO 2 sensitivity, consistent with basic principles of statistical mechanics. Last, a negative climate feedback through intensified aerosol direct effect from fire emissions reaches an equivalent decrease of 0.91 ± 0.01% in CO 2 radiative forcing. However, this feedback contributes to polar amplification. Our analysis shows that climate-lightning-wildfire interactions involve multiple compensating and amplifying feedbacks, which are sensitive to anthropogenic CO 2 forcing. |
| Publication Title | Science Advances |
| Publication Date | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt5088 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7ft8rh9 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| ACOM Affiliations | MODELING |